This short essay makes an obvious point: Church growth is a matter of the rate of entry into a church relative to the rate of exit from that church. Perhaps church growth literature has long recognized that fact. Yet given the greater focus in church – at least in my experience – on evangelism, or entry into the church, I am unsure a simple yet critical implication is understood. Namely, that evangelistic success – even tremendous evangelistic success – will not grow a church if the rate of exit from that church is the same as, or greater than, the rate of entry into that church.
This discussion is made all the more necessary by the apparent impact of the COVID pandemic on church attendance. A Barna survey in the first year of the pandemic reported that as many as one-third of people who identified as practicing Christians stopped going to church altogether as a result of the pandemic. That is, church attendance ratcheted downward permanently because people got used to skipping church services as a result of the pandemic. The data suggest not that many people have opted out of church entirely.
Part of this phenomenon might merely reflect the low ecclesiology held by many Christian believers in the U.S. That is, the numbers merely reflect a pre-pandemic belief of many Christians that “church is optional” for Christians, and these Christians continue to claim they maintain their Christian profession despite eschewing the Body of Christ. Others, however, are likely not simply “opting out of church” (even assuming one can do so and actually remain a Christian, cf., Heb 10.25). Rather, they are actually “falling away” from the faith. Time will tell whether forebodings about the permanency of the effect of the pandemic on church attendance are accurate. Nonetheless these forebodings do focus attention on the topic of church exit in a singular way.
Because church growth depends critically on the relative rate of entry to exit, churches desiring growth (as the Spirit wills) must focus carefully and intentionally on both variables, membership exit as well as membership entry. My own experience suggests that entry (or evangelism) receives a disproportionate amount of public focus in churches relative to exit. While there is no need to run from one extreme to the other, the implication here is that churches desiring growth will want to focus as much on ministries that reduce exit from their churches as they focus on ministries that increase entry into their churches. To re-state this in a less coldly instrumental way, the Scriptures discuss salvation as a matter of the perseverance of Christians to the end. Consistent with that, the Scriptures discuss Christian to Christian intra-church ministries and relationships as crucially important to the salvation of the souls already within the church. The implication is this: Reducing church exit saves souls.
First, though, a bit of algebra regarding the numbers game. While I intend the algebraic analysis humorously, it can, I hope, nonetheless help frame an edifying biblical discussion.
I first present a simple algebraic equation to reflect the insight that exit affects church growth as much as entry. I then point to a couple of places where the Scriptures teach broad lessons regarding how to decrease exit.
Variables of Church Growth
There is a natural rate of entry into churches. To wit, births, and people moving into a church’s local area. There is a correspondingly natural rate of exit. Death, and members moving away from the region of the church (for employment, or school, etc.).
I denote “entry” (E) by birth as Ebirth and entry by relocation from outside the area by Emove.
I denote “exit” (X) by death from a church as Xdeath and exit because of moving outside the church’s area as Xmove.
Next, there are also local transfers. Members who, for whatever reason, transfer or exit to another local church Xlocal transfer, and members of other local churches who transfer into “our” church Elocal transfer.
Then there is what I will call supernatural entry and exit.1 Those who convert to Christianity and join the home church (Econversion). And those who leave the faith, or whose faith grows cold (cf., Rev 2.4, Mt 24.12), and so leave the home church without joining another church, Xapostasy.
Putting these together, then, total entry into a church results from summing the variables birth, outside movement into the region, local transfers, and conversion. Or,
[1] Ebirth + Emove + Elocal transfer + Econversion.
And exit from a church results from summing death, movement out of the region, local transfers, and falling away. Or,
[2] Xdeath + Xmove + Xlocal transfer + Xapostasy.
Straightforwardly then, a church grows only when total entry into a church is greater than total exit from that church. Or,
Ebirth + Emove + Elocal transfer + Econversion > Xdeath + Xmove + Xlocal transfer + Xapostasy.
Placing all the terms on one side of the inequality, a church grows when entry factors minus exit factors are greater than zero. Or,
[3] Ebirth + Emove + Elocal transfer + Econversion – Xdeath – Xmove – Xlocal transfer – Xapostasy > 0.
Because most churches exercise little influence over Ebirth, Emove, Xdeath or Xmove,2 we can simplify equation [3].
So I drop those terms from equation [3]. That gives us a simpler algebraic condition for church growth expressed in equation [4]:
[4] Elocal transfer + Econversion – Xlocal transfer – Xapostasy > 0.
To be sure, the issue of “local church transfers” is sticky. People transfer in and out of local churches for bad reasons as well as good reasons. Often these local transfers alone determine whether a church grows or shrinks (and whether that growth is good or not), and so will be discussed below.
First, however, I want to focus on the manifestly “spiritual” variables, that is, focus on the role of evangelism and of “falling away” on church growth. I will dip my toe into the issue of local membership transfers only after this discussion.
Church Exit is a Critical Factor in Church Growth
With the proviso that I will pick up on the issue of local transfers below, it is the interplay between conversions and falling away that I want to focus on here. It is my experience that churches are more “intentional” in explicitly focusing on and discussing entry into the church by evangelism and conversions than in focusing on exit from the church by members who fall away. Not that churches ignore falling away. Yet, in my experience, churches discuss strategies to prevent current members from falling away from the church more rarely and less intentionally than they develop strategies aimed to attract non-members into the church.
And, yet, as equation [5] makes clear, evangelism is not a sufficient condition for church growth, even ignoring the other variables earlier in the paper. That is, the condition of church growth (holding the other variables constant) is,
[5] Econversion – Xapostasy > 0.
Equation [5] motivates the important point that evangelism alone does not – cannot – engender church growth. It is the rate of conversion relative to the rate of falling away. Yet while churches tend to provide more attention to entry than they do on exit, the Scriptures actually focus a fair bit of attention on the issue of exit and salvation. I quote several Scripture passages together, then discuss them below.
Heb 3.12-14.
Take care, brethren, that there not be in any one of you an evil, unbelieving heart that falls away from the living God. But encourage one another day after day, as long as it is still called “Today,” so that none of you will be hardened by the deceitfulness of sin.For we have become partakers of Christ, if we hold fast the beginning of our assurance firm until the end.
Matthew 13.20-22.
The one on whom seed was sown on the rocky places, this is the man who hears the word and immediately receives it with joy; yet he has no firm root in himself, but is only temporary, and when affliction or persecution arises because of the word, immediately he falls away. And the one on whom seed was sown among the thorns, this is the man who hears the word, and the worry of theworld and the deceitfulness of wealth choke the word, and it becomes unfruitful.
1 Corinthians 10.1-13
For I do not want you to be unaware, brethren, that our fathers were all under the cloud and all passed through the sea; and all were baptized into Moses in the cloud and in the sea; and all ate the same spiritual food; and all drank the same spiritual drink, for they were drinking from a spiritual rock which followed them; and the rock was Christ. Nevertheless, with most of them God was not well-pleased; for they were laid low in the wilderness. Now these things happened as examples for us, so that we would not crave evil things as they also craved.Do not be idolaters, as some of them were; as it is written, “The people sat down to eat and drink, and stood up to play.” Nor let us act immorally, as some of them did, and twenty-three thousand fell in one day. Nor let us try the Lord, as some of them did, and were destroyed by the serpents. Nor grumble, as some of them did, and were destroyed by the destroyer. Now these things happened to them as an example, and they were written for our instruction, upon whom the ends of the ages have come. Therefore let him who thinks he stands take heed that he does not fall. No temptation has overtaken you but such as is common to man; and God is faithful, who will not allow you to be tempted beyond what you are able, but with the temptation will provide the way of escape also, so that you will be able to endure it.
These and other passages suggest several things regarding discipleship and church growth.
A. The Measure of Saving Souls is Perseverance to the End, Not an Initial Evangelistic Response
Before getting to the main point in this section, let me underline that of course evangelism is necessary for salvation. Paul writes the obvious in Romans:
How then will they call on Him in whom they have not believed? How will they believe in Him whom they have not heard? And how will they hear without a preacher?How will they preach unless they are sent? (10.14-15)
And Jesus pointed out to Nicodemus, “Truly, truly, I say to you, unless one is born of water and the Spirit he cannot enter into the kingdom of God” (John 3.5). Jesus also observed that “there is more joy in heaven over one sinner who repents than over ninety-nine righteous persons who need no repentance” (Luke 15.7).
Evangelism is absolutely necessary for salvation and for the church (and for church growth). Yet while necessary, evangelism is not sufficient for salvation, the church, and church growth. As Jesus also pointed out in another context, “the one who endures to the end, he will be saved” (Mt 24.13). And in the parable of the sower, quoted above, at least one category of those who are evangelized and who respond positively nonetheless ultimately “fall away” and are lost.
The author of Hebrews is most explicit: Salvation is a matter of persevering to the end. That is, “we have become partakers of Christ, if we hold fast the beginning of our assurance firm until the end” (Heb 3.14).
That is, salvation is a matter not only of entry, but of exit as well. In the discussion here, the “exit” of a faithful Christian from our churches by death is a success. The “exit” of a putative Christian by falling away is a failure. This, again, seems like an obvious point. Yet churches tend to provide less attention to exit and perseverance relative to entry and evangelism. The oft repeated phrase that disciples must evangelize because there are lost souls going to hell “out there” betokens the emphasis. It’s to this asymmetry that I now turn, and how the Scriptures focus our attention on promoting successful exit as well as on promoting evangelistic entry.
B. Inward-Looking Church Ministries Save Souls
The author of Hebrews does not end the quoted passage with the observation that salvation comes from persevering to the end. The passage continues on to discuss the means by which Christians promote saving perseverance for each other (through the work of the Spirit). That is, they “encourage one another” (Heb 3.12).
Importantly, this ministry of “encouragement” is among existing disciples. That is, this soul-winning ministry is an intra-church ministry or activity. The Greek word for “encourage” in this passage, parakaleō, means to “call alongside.” It suggests the deep connection of disciple to disciple, each looking out in love for the welfare of the souls of other disciples. This intra-church ministry then helps disciples to avoid developing a “hard heart” that results in “falling away.” The passage brings home the failure of this sort of intrachurch encouragement: Not persevering to the end means not “partaking of Christ”; those who do not partake of Christ are lost souls.
So, too, in 1 Corinthians 10, Paul twice points out that the events he lists in the first five verses happened among believers as “examples” for the church. “Encouraging” one another to avoid the snare of idolatry is one means by which God has appointed to “escape” these temptations. As Paul puts it in Ephesians, “speaking the truth to one another in love, we are to grow into him who is the head, even Christ” (Eph 4.15).
Given the critical role that “encouraging” one another plays in the perseverance of disciples, and perseverance being as necessary to saving souls as initial conversion, church growth requires that churches focus as carefully and intentionally on promoting perseverance as they focus on evangelism.
More mundanely, from the algebra of church growth, we should note that a church can grow as directly by reducing exit as by increasing entry. The converse is also true: Evangelistic success – even tremendous evangelistic success – will not grow a church if the rate of exit is the same as, or greater than, the rate of entry.
The implication is clear: Churches need to pay as much attention to the spiritual causes of exit as they do to the spiritual causes of entry. It is important that churches work, by God’s grace, to address both variables in the inequality in equation [5],
[5] Econversion – Xapostasy > 0.
I now turn to the next topic, the important, yet difficult, issue of local church transfers.
The Touchy Topic of Local Church Transfers
Equation [4] stated earlier in the essay is not mathematically complicated, but it is complicated in practice. After all, local transfers in an out of churches are not uniformly good or bad. On the one hand, people can transfer local churches for good reasons: They move locally into a new parish and so transfer to the closer parish or church. Or they have learned to eschew dangerously heterodox views for orthodox views, and so seek to transfer into an orthodox church in which they can hear the true Gospel and fellowship with people committed to discipleship.
But Christians also often transfer locally for bad reasons. For example, they transfer as a result of a personal grievance that could (or would) have been reconciled had the person been a more mature Christian. Or they desire to have their ears tickled by heterodox sermons (2 Tim 4.3). Etc.
Beyond manifestly good and bad reasons to change churches, there is also a gray area of the “goods” that different churches offer: Better or worse children and youth ministries. Better or worse women’s and men’s ministries. Or, as practical matters, even the transaction costs of getting to church (distance, parking accessibility, perhaps in extreme cases aesthetic aspects of the building or sanctuary, etc.) can seemingly affect where some choose to attend church. So, too, adiaphoric aspects of worship (“praise songs” in worship versus traditional hymns, etc.) can influence church choices. Even further, non-doctrinal aspects of the sermons can affect church choices: for example, a person “likes” the preaching of a pastor at one church better than the pastor’s preaching at one’s current church, even if the doctrinal content is the same.
Moving up in seriousness, perhaps a person desires to depart from a church in which disciples are “lukewarm” to join a church in which the disciples are “hotter” (Rev 3.16). Or, similarly, a person might transfer from a church whose love has grown cold to join a church whose love is more vibrant. (This side steps the difficult question of whether to stay at one’s current church in order to help, as the Spirit wills, to turn the home church away from its lukewarmness.)
This is not the venue in which to discuss the practical wisdom, both for members and for leaders, of changing churches for calculations of this sort. The point rather is this: Local transfers can significantly affect changes in a church’s membership.
This could be good, as when locals transfer into an orthodox church in order to flee the heterodoxy of their current church and embrace an orthodox church. This can be not so good, as when a continually disgruntled churchman transfers in, and so also transfers his (or her) habitual disgruntlement to the new church as well. (Thereby potentially actually weakening the newly chosen church, despite contributing to the numerical growth of this church. Although it is always possible that attentive discipleship at the newly chosen church might lead the churchmen to eschew habitual disgruntlement.)
It is possible that exit from a given local church results mainly from disgruntlement rather than from apostasy. As a result, it could be worth a church focusing discussion and ministry on the means by which local exit might be minimized by, for example, improved discipleship in the church. This improved discipleship would focus not only on putatively exiting members, but also on non-exiting members as they interact with one another as the church.
For example, discipleship might lead members to grow and mature in their spiritual lives, and so lead them to forgive and reconcile with others when involved in disputes and disagreements rather than depart for another local church. Or perhaps, improved discipleship changes Christians’ “preferences” (see, e.g., Ro 12.2) so they are less apt to be “disgruntled” with the teaching or worship or doctrine at their home church and so do not leave. Or if they desire a particular ministry, they may, if feasible, help support or start that ministry at their home church rather than depart to another local church that offers better form of that ministry.
These can involve complicated judgment calls on all sides. Nonetheless, we must recognize that local church transfers can be critical to the growth or shrinkage of a local church. So this factor must be considered a factor when considering how to grow a local church by reducing exit from a church.
Conclusion
Perhaps everyone knows all of this already, and I’m no more than a Johnny-come-lately with my humorous addition of a bit of algebra. Still, after sitting in faithful churches, and paying (some) attention to the literature and discussion on “church growth,” it seems to me that evangelism and “entry” gets the lion’s share of direct attention when it comes to church growth, and falling away and “exit” receive less direct attention. This despite the fact, as the algebra of church growth demonstrates, that whether a church grows critically reflects the rate of entry into a church relative to the rate of exit from that church. Church growth necessarily occurs as a function of both entry and exit. While the algebra is intended humorously, it is intended to point to the serious point made by the author of the book of Hebrews: Successful exit is the true measure of soul saving, not simply the number of converts entering in. “For we have become partakers of Christ, if we hold fast the beginning of our assurance firm until the end” (Heb 3.14).
James R. Rogers, Ph.D., J.D., is associate professor of political science at Texas A&M University. He has published numerous scholarly articles in political science, law, and economics. He also co-edited one book, Institutional Games and the Supreme Court. He writes more-popular articles on a weekly basis for the Law & Liberty website (https://www.lawliberty.org/author/james-rogers/). Rogers also served as editor of the Journal of Theoretical Politics from 2006 through 2013.
- This is not to say God is not equally involved in the other variables. It is a way simply to designate the manifest work of the Spirit in conversion. ↩︎
- I emphasize the “most churches” part of this statement. There are some churches whose life is so compelling for their members that the members resist moving away for job or other opportunities. ↩︎