I can’t fit it all together, but in general outlines, it’s clear that Matthew’s Passion narrative is tracking with Zechariah 9-14.  There are a couple of fixed points: Jesus’ entry into Jerusalem explicitly fulfills Zechariah 9 (cf. Matthew 21:5), and despite the fact that he attributes the prophecy to Jeremiah, Matthew quotes from Zechariah 11:13 when describing Judas’ return of his blood money (Matthew 27:9-10).

Between these, there are a number of intertextual links.

1. The king of peace who arrives in Jerusalem in Zechariah 9 comes to deliver the “flock of His people,” to make them flourish like a garden and flash like a crown, to bring grain and new wine (9:16-17).  This introduces the sheep/shepherd imagery taken up later in Zechariah and key to Matthew’s Passion narrative.

2. The existing shepherd of Israel are wicked, leaving the people “afflicted, because there is no shepherd” (10:2).  Matthew alludes to this in 9:36, but the clearest proof of the villainy of the shepherds of Israel comes in Jesus’ confrontations in the temple in chapters 21-22.  Jesus’ anger, like Yahweh’s (Zechariah 10:3), is kindled at the shepherds and male goats.  Specifically, the shepherds traffic in sheep, buying and selling Yahweh’s flock and boasting of how rich they become (Zechariah 11:5).  Jesus’ condemnation of the temple might fit here, conflating Jeremiah 7 with Zechariah 11.

3. Zechariah warns that Lebanon, with its cedar and cypress forests, will be torn down and burned (11:1-2).  Lions will roar against Israel, and the thicket of the Jordan will be ruined (11:3). Over the tumult will come the piercing shriek of the shepherds’ wailing (11:3).  Cypress and cedar were materials of Solomon’s temple, and the temple is elsewhere described as a forest, a forest of cedars of Lebanon.  Zechariah 11:1-3 is a mini Olivet Discourse.

4. The story of the shepherd in Zechariah 3:4-17 has specific links with Matthew’s Passion narrative: Thirty pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:13), “throw it to the potter” (v. 13), and the hostility to Yahweh’s good shepherd.  The story line as a whole matches Jesus’ story: Yahweh tells the prophet to pasture the doomed flock, suffering under their greedy masters; the prophet pastures faithfully, delivering the flock from three oppressive shepherds; but the flock doesn’t respond, and the shepherd becomes frustrated and angry, giving them over to annihilation, as he had previously annihilated the shepherds; he breaks the staff of “favor,” and asks for his wages, which amount to a measly thirty shekels; he rejects the price, and throws the money back to the temple treasury or foundry; the shepherd then breaks the staff of union, leaving Israel divided by murderous factions, and leaves them to a useless shepherd who devours the fat and tears off their hoofs.

Jesus too comes to pasture a doomed and afflicted flock; He battles the false shepherds, but when the response is not what He seeks He gives them over to annihilation; He comes to Jerusalem seeking the wages of His labor, the tribute of His flock, but finds it a withered fig tree without fruit; Judas, standing in for Judah/Jews as a whole, values Him at thirty pieces silver, but this money is later returned to the temple; Jesus leaves the flock divided and torn with strife, suffering under the shepherd they have chosen - for they “have no king but Caesar.”