Jesus asks a series of questions about who John is, about what people were expecting from him. Did they go into the wilderness to see reeds shaken by the wind? Or a man in soft clothing? Or a prophet? The answer to the second is clearly No: John is not a man in soft clothing; he is not the kind of man found in kings’ palaces. And the answer to the first also seems to be No. John is not a reed shaken by the wind. The last one is the correct answer: John is a prophet, the greatest of the prophets, the last of the prophets before the coming of the kingdom. But why would anyone think he was a reed or a man in soft clothing? Where would these alternatives come from? The best answer to that, I think, is that Jesus is alluding to various cryptic promises of the coming age, of the Messiah. Reeds aren’t found in the wilderness, but by water. Putting together reed and wind and wilderness evokes Israel’s exodus experience, when the Lord’s wind blew back what Exodus calls the “Sea of Reeds” so that Israel could pass through and out of Egypt. Jesus is asking if the people gathered in the wilderness because John is a new Moses, who will lead them out of Egypt, and out of the wilderness, into the promised land. The reference to men in soft clothing in kings’ palaces may be a reference to the promise of a coming Davidic king. Jesus is asking if the people went out to the wilderness in hopes of finding the Messiah. (This is following a suggestion from Davies and Allison.)

The answer to that is No. John is not the new Moses, nor a Davidic king. He is the prophet promised by Malachi 3 (v. 10), the prophet “Elijah” (v. 13). He is not the Coming One, but the one who comes to prepare for the Coming One. John’s work is the hinge point of redemptive history. With the “days of John,” one phase of history comes to an end and a new one is about to begin.

The phase of history that comes to an end is the phase of what Jesus, in an unusual phrase, calls “the prophets and the law,” which “prophesy” until John (v. 13). Why does Jesus say that the time of the prophets and the law has come to an end with the “days of John”? Verse 12 seems to give the answer. Verse 12 is a difficult statement, interpreted in various ways. But the point seems to be about both the powerful progress of the kingdom, which begins with John, and the violent opposition that this progress unleashes. With John, God begins waging war against His enemies, and His enemies violently attack Him (v. 12).

Jews expected that prior to the triumph of the Messiah, there would be a time of tribulation and apostasy. The prophets spoke of a time when the law would become ineffective and true prophecy would cease (Lam 2:9; Ezek 7:25-27; Zeph 3:3; Zech 7:19). John’s ministry marks the beginning of this climactic battle, this cosmic warfare between the kingdom of God and the forces of evil. John’s ministry initiates the Messianic tribulation, a time of lawlessness and false prophecy when the prophets and law are silenced (Brant Pitre).